Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of...

Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlomethod for Bayesian analysis of models with ill-behaved posteriordistributions. In order to sample efficiently from such a distribution,a location-scale transformation and a transformation to polarcoordinates are used. After...

This paper shows how to bootstrap hypothesis tests in the context of the Parks (Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated 1967) estimator. It then demonstrates that the bootstrap outperforms Parks's top...

This paper shows how to bootstrap hypothesis tests in the context of the Parks’s (1967) Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimator. It then demonstrates that the bootstrap outperforms FGLS(Parks)’s top competitor. The FGLS(Parks) estimator has been a workhorse for the analysis of panel...

In recent years, credit risk has played a key role in risk management issues. Practitioners, academics and regulators have been fully involved in the process of developing, studying and analyzing credit risk models in order to find the elements which characterize a sound risk management system.(...)