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Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general …. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of the unknown quantities to be future values of some variables of … interest. This chapter presents the principles of Bayesian forecasting, and describes recent advances in computational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023705
This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation and comparison of flexible, high dimensional multivariate time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441545
In this note we attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940's through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of the Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the algorithms currently in use. More...
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Bayesian techniques. A salient feature of the model is an extension of the typically postulated quadratic cost structure for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281666
Sequential sampling problems arise in stochastic simulation and many other applications. Sampling is used to infer the unknown performance of several alternatives before one alternative is selected as best. This paper presents new economically motivated fully sequential sampling procedures to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990579
This paper shows how one can compute option prices from a Bayesian inference viewpoint, using an econometric model for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005008451
Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlomethod for Bayesian analysis of models with ill … applied within a Bayesian analysisof a GARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of theValue-at-Risk of the return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324702