This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of both linear and non-linearity of consumer prices in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015. For linear tests, monthly prices data of consumer price index (CPI) for nine groups of goods and services were analysed using the unit root tests and...

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterization of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM...

This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of both linear and non-linearity of consumer prices in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015. For linear tests, monthly prices data of consumer price index (CPI) for nine groups of goods and services were analysed using the unit root tests and...

This paper improves the test for deficit sustainability developed by Hatzinikolaou and Simos (2013, henceforth HS) by taking into account structural breaks when deriving critical values for the test. Using quarterly data on the US current-account deficit, 1947.1-2012.2, we find that taking into...

Composite economic indicator is a very useful tool designed to trace and predict the business cycle conditions. In this paper we study possible extensions of this approach intended to cope with the potential data problems caused by various structural breaks affecting both level and volatility of...

This study re-examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in Lebanon. In contrast to earlier studies, we start by testing for a unit root in the presence of structural change using the Innovational Outlier (IO) model. This study also utilizes the newly proposed...

In this paper, we examine the dynamic behavior of credit spreads on corporate bond portfolios. We propose an econometric model of credit spreads that incorporates portfolio rebalancing, the near unit root property of spreads, the autocorrelation in spread changes, the ARCH conditional...

Statistical models can play a crucial role in decision making. Traditional model validation tests typically make restrictive parametric assumptions about the model under the null and the alternative hypotheses. The majority of these tests examine one type of change at a time. This paper presents...

Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional forecasters failed to anticipate it. A possible explanation...

We develop an easy-to-implement method for forecasting a stationary autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) process subject to structural breaks with unknown break dates. We show that an ARFIMA process subject to a mean shift and a change in the long memory parameter can...