Abstract. Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2012 we first show that expectations fail to unbiasedness tests and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality....

Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2012 we first show that expectations fail to unbiasedness tests and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality. Our...

Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts' expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the Yen/USD and the British Pound/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional...

This paper relaxes a fundamental hypothesis commonly accepted in the expectation formation literature: expectations are, unchangingly, either rational or generated by one of the three simple extrapolative, regressive or adaptive processes. Using expectations survey data provided by Consensus...