In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals...

In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals...

Based on data of inflation forecasts provided quarterly by the National Bank of Romania, forecast intervals were built using the method of historical forecast errors. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard...

The objective of this research is to present some accuracy measures associated to forecast intervals, taken into account the fact that in literature some specific accuracy indicators for this type of prediction have not been proposed yet. For the quarterly inflation rate provided by the National...

In this article, we proposed the introduction in literature of a new source of uncertainty in modeling and forecasting: the indicators’ inadequacy. Even if it was observed, a specific nominalization in the context of forecasting procedure has not been done yet. The inadequacy of indicators as...