Aim: Develop a methodological approach to reduce uncertainty of knowledge necessary for decision making in quick changing surroundings. Research methods: The research method is heuristic supported by the research programme in Lakatos' sense, specially designed for these purposes based on the...

A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and intergenerational inequality aversion and for risk...

We analyse firms' sourcing decisions under institutional uncertainty in foreign countries. Firms can reduce their uncertainty by observing offshoring firms' behaviour. The model characterises a sequential offshoring equilibrium path, led by the most productive firms in the market. With multiple...

Environmental managers face substantial uncertainty when deciding on management actions. To reduce this uncertainty prior to decision-making, collecting new data may help arrive at more informed decisions. Whether any resulting improvement in the decision will outweigh the cost of collecting the...

In the seminal rational inattention model of Matĕjka and McKay (2015), logit demand arises from the discrete choice of agents who are uncertain about choice payoffs and who have access to a flexible, costly information acquisition technology (RI-logit). A notable limitation of this powerful...

We characterize the dispersion of firm-level productivity and demand shocks using Swedish microdata including prices and utilization and analyse the consequences for firms and the aggregate economy. Demand dispersion increases by more than TFPQ dispersion in recessions. Productivity shocks pass...

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...

Shackle was one of the representative critics of probability calculus. His alternative decision theory was mathematically reformalized by Katzner till 1990s. Following the Katzner's reformalized framework, this paper presents a new interpretation of Shacklean theory by focusing on the common...

In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by...