This article aims at identifying the determinants of currency crises in Turkey the period 1980:01-2006:06. Following a general-to-specific model selection methodology, a broad set of pre-selected variables were tested through bivariate logit regressions. Significant variables were then used in a...

This article aims at identifying the leading indicators of currency crises in Turkey in its post-liberalization history through the signals approach introduced by Kaminsky et al (1998). Based on a broad set of potential indicators, a number of variables are found to be persistently signaling the...

This article aims at investigating the long-run relationship between stock prices and speculative pressure in the Turkish exchange market through Granger-causality analysis for the period 1986:01-2006:11. For this purpose an Exchange Market Pressure Index is built using the weighted average of...

Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that there is a link between domestic credit and...

This thesis investigates the determinants of exchange market pressure and currency crises in Turkey over the period 1989:09 and 2001:04 using three empirical methodologies: the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to investigate the short-run and the long-run dynamics of...

This study attempts to outline the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Pakistan's inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. On the basis of in-sample and out-of-sample forecast it...