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The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great?

Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores - 2015

structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of … volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that … volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014407

The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices : A Reappraisal

Arezki, Rabah - 2013

This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends … to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091831

Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?

Harrison, Sharon G.; Weder, Mark - 2002

We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents' self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621410

The Rich and the Great Recession

Bakker, Bas Berend - 2015

Most papers explaining the macro causes of the U.S. Great Recession focus on the behavior of the middle class: how its saving rate declined in the pre-crisis years, then surged following the crisis. This paper argues that the saving rate of the rich followed a similar pattern, the result of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028679

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record

Jalil, Andrew - 2015

This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035070

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933 : Evidence from the Narrative Record

Jalil, Andrew - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023032

Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression

Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020

I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992

Accelerating into the Abyss : Financial Dependence and the Great Depression

Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019

This paper gives new evidence for the importance of bank suspensions during the Great Depression. I establish that more financially dependent manufacturing industries exhibited steeper declines in output relative to peers. This differential is largest in states that were most affected by banking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905100

Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions

Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019

Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724

Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression

Bordo, Michael D.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Evans, Charles L. - 2000

This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154226