need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …

The decline in macroeconomic volatility from the 1980s to the onset of the Great Recession did not, in general …, translate into more microeconomic stability. While microeconomic volatility can reflect growth-generating processes, such as … creative destruction and re-allocation of resources, consumption growth volatility weighs on households’ welfare. This study …