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Oil price forecast evaluation with flexible loss functions
Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo; Markandya, Anil; … - 2011
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using … producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price. -- Oil Price ; WTI Spot and Futures Prices ; Forecasting ; Econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382869
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Iranian-oil-free zone and international oil prices
Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Parvari, Mozhgan Raeisian - 2014
One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339672
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The dynamic effect of oil rent on industrial value added : a SVAR approach
Issaoui, Fakhri; Boufateh, Talel; El Montasser, Ghassen - 2013
This paper studies the dynamic effect of oil rents on industrial added value in a sample of countries with different levels of development. Using a SVAR model, we tested the effect of a real shock and a nominal shock on the variables of the model. The main obtained results are three. First, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011527065
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The long- and short-run impact of oil price changes on major global economies
Heidorn, Thomas; Van Huellen, Sophie; Ruehl, C.; … - 2017
In the context of the recent slump in global oil prices, the paper investigates the effect of oil price shocks on the economic performance of 51 individual OECD and OPEC economies. We propose an error correction model which allows us to differentiate between short- and longrun price effects. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011742654
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The boom, the bust, and the dynamics of oil resource management in Ghana
Aryeetey, Ernest; Ackah, Ishmael - 2018
Oil resources are neither a curse nor a blessing. The sound management of these resources can make them beneficial or otherwise. In order to translate Ghana's oil resources into inclusive development amid high expectations, several laws and regulations have been passed and new institutions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894318
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Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?
Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza - 2012
There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009552166
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Oil exports and the Iranian economy
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009
This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897747
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Oil exports and the Iranian economy
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009
This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003909263
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Facts and fiction in oil market modeling
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119530
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Facts and fiction in oil market modeling
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227495