"Imagined Futures offers a new explanation for the dynamics of modern capitalism and the restlessness of our economy, based on our temporal orientation. Building on a historical account of how competition and the credit system have forced actors to orient their decisions towards a future that is...

This is the first study that analyzes whether budget balance expectations are anchored and whether budget balance rules effectively anchor expectations. To this end, we use a unique data set which covers budget balance expectations in 17 countries that implemented a budget balance rules. While...

Forming expectations about the future path of the economy and the own business prospects is not costless for a firm. Instead, acquiring and processing the relevant macroeconomic information requires valuable resources. One important source of information that provides a coding service is the...

We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model incorporates volatility uncertainty. With a standard probabilistic model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem, see...

A frequent feature of information structures is that they generate signals which are not mutually independent, but rather rely on a common set of underlying information. Using a simple experimental design, we show that in such contexts many people neglect correlations in the updating process,...