We investigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank lending rates in the euro area before and during the sovereign debt crisis. We make the following contributions. First, we use a factor-augmented vector autoregression, which allows us to assess the responses of a large number of...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

We combine the factor augmented VAR framework with recently developed estimation and identification procedures for sparse dynamic factor models. Working with a sparse hierarchical prior distribution allows us to discriminate between zero and non-zero factor loadings. The non-zero loadings...

We estimate the long-term natural rate of interest for the euro area with two specifications of a simple semi-structural macroeconomic model. The estimates provide competing interpretations for the euro area’s current economic environment of weak growth, subdued inflation and exceptionally low...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

This paper looks at fiscal sustainability and fiscal risks from a comprehensive, global perspective. It argues that the benefits of consolidation have to be re-assessed given that industrialised countries have entered uncharted waters with unsustainable public debt dynamics and enormous...

We model the dynamics of the euro area yield curve using a shadow-rate term structure model (SRTSM), with particular attention to the period since late 2011 when interest rates have been at the lowest level since the inception of EMU. The shadow rate is driven by latent factors with linear...

An increase in the level of interest rates is said to have a negative impact on banks net interest margins in the short run. Using a time series of more than 40 years for the German banking system, we show that the opposite effect exists in the long run, where an increase in the level of...

This paper introduces changes in the level of ambiguity as a complementary source of time-varying risk aversion. We show in a consumption-based asset pricing model with simultaneously risky and ambiguous assets that a rise in the level of ambiguity raises investors' risk aversion. The effect is...

The European Central Bank (ECB) carried out a study of the social and private costs of different payment instruments with the participation of 13 national central banks in the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It shows that the costs to society of providing retail payment services are...