In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model where the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and find that the less pronounced reaction of...

This dissertation focuses on describing and explaining business cycle dynamics. Motivated by the extraordinary strong economic downturn in 2008/2009, it emphasis the importance of modeling nonlinearities. This thesis should be regarded as a contribution to applied econometrics and can be...

This paper interprets economic growth as a sequence of transitions between four growth regimes: crisis, stagnation, stable growth, and miracle growth. Countries experience distinct patterns of growth because they switch between the growth regimes with different frequencies. The aim of this paper...