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The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline … price shocks may indeed drive one-year household inflation expectations. The model shows that there have been several such … episodes since 1990. In particular, the rise in household inflation expectations between 2009 and 2013 is almost entirely …
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inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil … expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696925
inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil … expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698202
We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find … little evidence from two US household surveys that people over-react to their beliefs about gasoline prices when formulating … their forecasts about inflation, with much of the evidence pointing towards under-reaction. We also show that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014433850
The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that … supply and to inflation expectations significantly increase real oil prices; with the unadjusted M1 aggregate there is no … role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014295388
in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by …This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes … estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343273
allowed it to become a major exporter of gasoline and diesel fuel. Since mid-2014 the global real price of crude oil has … extent was the recent oil price decline caused by the tight oil boom? Second, how did the tight oil boom affect the price of … gasoline in global markets and in the United States? Third, what determines the investment response of the oil sector to oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615967
fringe gasoline stations? Using 2014 Market Transparency price data from 66 cities with populations between 60,000 and 100 …Do we have effective competition between the gasoline's big five oligopolists (Aral, Shell, Esso, Total and Jet) and …,000, we analyze which brands lead price increases, the first average price mark-up in the evening, and the trend on price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011487769