We study the loss function of 15 European governments as implied by their budget balance forecasts. Results suggest that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast horizon increases and in advance of parliamentary election....

Economic theory predicts that, in a small open economy, the dynamics of the real price of gold should be linked to real interest rates and the rate of change of the real exchange rate. Using data for Australia, we use a real-time forecasting approach to analyze whether real interest rates and...

Text 4. In diesem Buch wird die aktuelle Problematik der weltweit niedrigen Leitzinsen aufgegriffen und das auf John M. Keynes zurückgehende Konzept der Liquiditätsfalle in die moderne Makroökonomik übertragen. In drei einfachen dynamischen Modellen wird untersucht, ob die Liquiditätsfalle...