In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...

Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by creating a tighter link between cross-sectional and time-series variation of interest rates. This paper presents a new econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs...

This paper employs a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) consistent shadow-rate model to decompose UK nominal yields into expectation and term premia components. Compared to a standard affine term structure model, it performs relatively better in a ZLB setting and effectively captures the countercyclical...

We show how to set up a forward rate model in the presence of volatility uncertainty by using the theory of G-Brownian motion. In order to formulate the model, we extend the G-framework to integration with respect to two integrators and prove a version of Fubini's theorem for stochastic...

It is shown how to construct an arbitrage-free short rate model under uncertainty about the drift and the volatility. The uncertainty is represented by a set of priors, which naturally leads to a G-Brownian motion. Within this framework, it is shown how to characterize the whole term structure...

We consider two sequences of Markov chains inducing equivalent measures on the discrete path space. We establish conditions under which these two measures converge weakly to measures induced on the Wiener space by weak solutions of two SDEs, which are unique in the sense of probability law. We...

Let L be a linear space of real bounded random variables on the probability space (omega,A, P0). There is a finitely additive probability P on A, such that P tilde P0 and EP (X) = 0 for all X in L, if and only if cEQ(X) = ess sup(-X), X in L, for some constant c 0 and (countably additive)...

This study deals with the pricing and hedging of inflation-indexed bonds. Under foreign exchange analogy we model the nominal short rate, real short rate and logarithm of the price index with an affi ne Gaussian process. Using the underlying a ffine property, we compute the nominal and...