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Pricing default risk : the good, the bad, and the anomaly

Ferreira Filipe, Sara; Grammatikos, Theoharry; Michala, … - 2014

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861135

Group affiliation and default prediction

Beaver, William H.; Cascino, Stefano; Correia, Maria; … - 2018

Using a large sample of business groups from more than one hundred countries around the world, we show that group information matters for parent and subsidiary default prediction. Group firms may support each other when in financial distress. Potential group support represents an off-balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864989

Strategic default in financial networks

Allouch, Nizar; Jalloul, Maya - 2018

This paper investigates a model of strategic interactions in financial networks, where the decision by one agent on whether or not to default impacts the incentives of other agents to escape default. Agents' payoffs are determined by the clearing mechanism introduced in the seminal contribution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812108

The use of insolvency law based re-organisation proceedings by small and medium-sized enterprises

Kranzusch, Peter; Icks, Annette - 2018

Sanierungswege, z. B. das eigenverwaltete Schutzschirmverfahren vor der Insolvenz und die Eigenverwaltung während des …With the introduction of the ESUG law, German insolvency legislation was reformed in 2012. It offers new proceedings … for enterprise re-organisation, both before insolvency and between the application for insolvency and the start of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813213

Can machine learning models capture correlations in corporate distresses?

Christoffersen, Benjamin; Matin, Rastin; Mølgaard, Pia - 2018

Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011919300

Debt restructuring with multiple bank relationships

Baglioni, Angelo; Colombo, Luca; Rossi, Paola - 2019

When the debt of firms in distress is dispersed, a restructuring agreement is difficult to reach because of free riding. We develop a repeated game in which banks come across each other frequently, allowing them to threaten a punishment in case of free riding. As the number of lending banks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962128

Financial frictions, real estate collateral, and small firm activity in Europe

Banerjee, Ryan; Blickle, Kristian - 2018

We observe significant heterogeneity in the correlation between changes in house prices and the growth of small firms across certain countries in Europe. We find that, overall, the correlation is far greater in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. Using a simple model, we show that this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904686

Strategic default in financial networks

Allouch, Nizar; Jalloul, Maya - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790364

Moving in and out of financial distress : evidence for newly founded service sector firms

Kaiser, Ulrich - 2001

The determinants of transitions between different states of financial distress are analyzed using two versions of Markov chain models: a multinomial logit model without random effects and a multinomial logit model capturing such unobservable factors. The empirical analysis is based on a panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445915

Modelling bankruptcy using Hungarian firm-level data

Bauer, Péter; Edrész, Marianna - 2016

The ultimate aim of this paper is to generate micro-level risk measures, which can provide a useful input for further research. To this end, this paper estimates bankruptcy probabilities for Hungarian firms using probit estimation. The estimated models show reasonable performance in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448143