This paper defines economic slumps as sequences of structural breaks exhibiting a specific pattern. We identify 58 such episodes between 1950 and 2008 among 138 countries, and then examine the phases of decline and their duration. In some countries declines last extremely long, and we put...

This paper identifies and characterizes episodes of structural change in the 27 years that preceded the Great Recession. This is done by performing Bai-Perron (2003a, 2003b) tests on 61,843 time series that span 34 countries, which collectively accounted for 81% of Gross World Product in 2013....

Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these...