This paper examines the importance of central bank communication in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy and in underpinning the credibility, accountability and legitimacy of independent central banks. It documents how communication has become a monetary policy tool in itself; one...

This paper summarises the work done by Eurosystem staff in the context of the Strategy Review Seminar on Monetary Policy Instruments. More specifically, it focuses on the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the key monetary policy instruments employed by the European Central Bank...

This paper reviews the experience of the ECB with the two-tier system for excess reserve remuneration that exempted a portion of banks' excess liquidity (EL) holdings from the negative interest rate of the ECB's deposit facility. The two-tier system aimed to support the bank-based transmission...

We solicit household expectations about the economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. Households expect output to decrease by about 6 percent and inflation to increase by 5 percentage points in the 12 months following March 2020. We also document that the uncertainty about the overall effect is...

As the euro area has a predominantly bank-based financial system, changes in the composition and strength of banks' balance sheets can have very sizeable implications for the transmission of monetary policy. This paper provides an overview of developments in banks' balance sheets, profitability...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

This occasional paper explains why the bank lending survey was developed by the ECB and describes its main features. It discusses the importance of credit developments for both the economy and the functioning of monetary policy, and further clarifies why the survey was introduced. Furthermore,...

This Occasional Paper reviews financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership with a candidate country status, i.e. Croatia (planned to accede to the EU on 1 July 2013), Iceland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey. It follows a...

The destructive potential of the sovereign debt crisis of the euro area has been slowly abating since last summer, but still remains considerable. One reason for it is the sheer complexity of the crisis, which brings together several harmful factors, some long-standing, others more recent, like...