We study the influence of job characteristics on prospective retirement as measured by the probability of working past age 62 or 65. The characteristics fall into three broad classes: physical and mental requirements, job flexibility including employer accomodation to older workers, and...

Although expectations (or subjective probability distributions) play a prominent role in models of decision-making under uncertainty, we have very little data on them and are instead forced to base our models on unverifiable assumptions. Macroeconomic models often assume rational expectations,...

In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the...