Forty years ago, Henri Theil created a prediction-realization diagram to compare forecasts with the actual changes that were realized. The diagram emphasizes and element of accuracy that is not accounted for in traditional metrics—the accuracy with which you forecast the correct direction of...

Out with the beaded curtains, dripping candles, and crystal balls, says Roy Pearson in this, his first column as Foresight’s Forecasting Intelligence Editor. These days, trying to foretell the future has become a respected and respectable line of work. Roy writes that today’s futurists...

Credible: Capable of being believed and worthy of confidence. Based on years of experience, surveys of academics, and knowledge of best practices, the author offers solid advice on enhancing the credibility of forecasts and on reducing forecast errors. Copyright International Institute of...

Pearson tells readers about the wealth of free information about current economics that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) makes available online. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

In the Summer 2009 issue of Foresight, Pearson described Short-Term Energy Outlook, a report prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and found at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html, as a source for free national and census-division economic forecasts, available...

The Spring 2010 issue of Foresight featured Adam Gordon's presentation of "A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight." DEFT is the Drivers, Enablers, Friction, and Turners that underpin a trend and determine its course and longevity. In this article, Roy Pearson offers his perspectives on...

Roy Pearson examines a valuable new Web-based application – the IFs model – that enables forecasters to deal with the future impacts of changes in their organization’s external environment. These can be product or market changes, but technological, demographic, social, political, and...