We examine how conditionality inherent to the real-life observable data influences our forecasting and decision … decision-making by analyzing examples ranging from logic puzzles to asset pricing and model-based forecasting. Across many … decision-making …

Having information about an uncertain event is crucial for informed decision-making. This paper introduces a simple … framework in which 1) a principal uses the reported beliefs of multiple agents to make a decision and 2) the agents reporting a … belief are affected by the decision. Naturally, the question arises how the principal can incentivize the agents to report …