During the past five years, industry analysts have proclaimed that metal prices are in the early phase of a 'super cycle,' driven primarily by Chinese industrial expansion. Academic economists have generally been very skeptical about the presence of long cycles. A time-series econometric...

This paper presents a model for analyzing potential conflicts between short-run output and employment effects and medium-run growth effects of various fiscal actions. In the model, both firms and households are intertemporal optimizers; short-run wage stickiness and interest rate controls...

This paper explores the use of low-frequency band-pass filters for describing long-run trends in real mineral commodity prices. This approach has the advantage of allowing long-run trends rate to evolve gradually over time, rather than assuming that they are constant (perhaps with occasional...

'Natural Resources: Neither Course nor Destiny' brings together a variety of analytical perspectives, ranging from econometric analyses of economic growth to historical studies of successful development experiences in countries with abundant natural resources. The evidence suggests that natural...

This paper develops GARCH and VEC-MGARCH-based tests of four hypotheses from Fama and French (1988) involving linkages between spot and futures prices --- both their levels and variances. The tests are applied to monthly data for seven metals traded on the London Metal Exchange over the period...

This paper explores the use of low-frequency band-pass filters for describing long-run trends in real mineral commodity prices. This approach has the advantage of allowing long-run trend rates to evolve gradually over time, rather than assuming that they are constant (perhaps with occasional...