This paper reviews recent progress in applying information-theoretic tools to long-standing exchange rate puzzles. I begin by distinguishing the traditional public information approach (e.g. monetary models, including new open economy models) from the newer dispersed information approach. (The...

I provide theoretical perspective on recent findings of increased transaction costs in the new dollar-euro market relative to the prior dollar-mark market, and assess the welfare significance of this drop in liquidity. In theory, transaction costs arise from information disadvantage costs,...

We provide evidence of private information in the foreign exchange market. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch-return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public...

It is a common view that private information in the foreign exchange market does not exist. We provide evidence against this view. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch-hour return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot...

This paper provides a new test for whether different-currency assets are imperfect substitutes. The test exploits that under floating rates, changing public currency demand has no direct effect on monetary fundamentals, current or future. Price effects from imperfect substitutability are clearly...

This paper develops a model for understanding end-user order flow in the FX market. The model addresses several puzzling findings. First, the estimated price-impact of flow from different end-user segments is, dollar-for-dollar, quite different. Second, order flow from segments traditionally...

Macro news can affect currency prices directly and indirectly via order flow. Past research shows that the direct effects of scheduled macro news account for less than 10% of daily price variance. This paper shows that the arrival of macro news can account for more than 30% of daily price...