The paper is concerned with identifying useful indicators of the probability of currency crises in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand over a period of 22 years, where a currency crisis is defined as a large and infrequent devaluation of a local currency. The leading...

This paper proposes a simple, partial equilibrium model for studying an individual's migration decisions. It shows that an individual may choose to delay migration when the condition appears to be favorable, giving rise to the “waiting” behavior observed in the data. Using a closed-form...

This paper discusses how conditional heteroskedasticity models can be estimated efficiently without imposing strong distributional assumptions such as normality. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) principle, we show that for a class of models with a symmetric conditional distribution,...

This paper studies regression models with a lagged dependent variable when both the dependent and independent variables are nonstationary, and the regression model is misspecified in some dimension. In particular, we discuss the limiting properties of least-squares estimates of the parameters in...

Building on the tools developed for American call options in financial markets and the optimal timing of investment under uncertainty in economics, this paper proposes a stylized equilibrium model to study the optimal time for a risk-averse unemployed individual, who receives an unemployment...

We study the problem of finding the worst-case joint distribution of a set of risk factors given prescribed multivariate marginals with nonlinear loss function. The method has applications to any situation where marginals are provided, and bounds need to be determined on total portfolio risk....

This paper focuses on simulation-based inference for the time-deformation models directed by a duration process. In order to describe the heavy tail property of the time series of financial asset returns, the innovation of the observation equation is assumed to have a Student-t distribution....

This paper studies the functional of the path of a diffusion in which volatility switches between two states: high and low. For this two-state Markov-chain model, we derive a closed-form expression for the distribution function for the time spent in the high volatility state by guessing the form...

The objective of this study is to identify factors that help build an IT reputation, and to evaluate whether markets value a firm's ability to develop and sustain its IT reputation. Building on IT strategic leadership and IT business value literature, we argue that a similarity in the background...