We argue that the current framework for predictive ability testing (e.g., West, 1996) is not necessarily useful for real-time forecast selection, i.e., for assessing which of two competing forecasting methods will perform better in the future. We propose an alternative framework for...

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying time series in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statistics with...

Many economic and econometric applications require the integration of functions lacking a closed form antiderivative, which is therefore a task that can only be solved by numerical methods. We propose a new family of probability densities that can be used as substitutes and have the property of...

This paper is concerned with extending the familiar notion of fixed effects to nonlinear setups with infinite dimensional unobservables like preferences. The main result is that a generalized version of differencing identifies local average structural derivatives (LASDs) in very general...

The causal notions embodied in the concept of Granger causality have been argued to belong to a different category than those of Judea Pearl's Causal Model, and so far their relation has remained obscure. Here, we demonstrate that these concepts are in fact closely linked by showing how each...

We examine the econometric implications of the decision problem faced by a profit/utility-maximizing lender operating in a simple "double-binary" environment, where the two actions available are "approve" or "reject", and the two states of the world are "pay back" or "default". In practice, such...

We give two new approaches to testing a conditional form of exogeneity. This condition ensures unconfoundedness and identification of effects of interest in structural systems. As these approaches do not rely on the absence of causal effects of treatment under the null, they complement earlier...

This paper demonstrates the extensive scope of an alternative to standard instrumental variables methods, namely covariate-based methods, for identifying and estimating effects of interest in general structural systems. As we show, commonly used econometric methods, specifically parametric,...