We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the...

This paper uses weekly data on short-term eurorates for ten countries for the period 1979-96 to document that the ability of the expectations hypothesis (EH) to account for movements in the term structure is greater, and that short-term interest rates are more predictable, under fixed than under...

This paper studies the term structure of short-term interbank rates in Hong Kong. Principal components analysis suggests that the variation of the term structure can be largely attributed to two components which capture shifts in the level and slope of the yield curve. We find that term spreads...

Starting in the early 1990s, several emerging market and transition economies (EMEs) have adopted inflation targeting (IT). In this paper we discuss a number of issues that arise in this context: (a) the definition of IT, (b) the role of preconditions for IT, (c) the use of intermediate exchange...

This paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and lending in Hong Kong. This is an interesting topic for three reasons. First, swings in property prices have been extremely large and frequent in Hong Kong. Second, under the currency board regime, monetary policy can not...

This paper uses annual data to study the interaction of consumer and commodity prices in 15 economies over the period 1850-1913. We find that consumer price inflation in all 15 countries co-moves with a broad measure of changes in commodity prices. Consumer prices comove most strongly with...