This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks' balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number of banks were important determinants of long-run money demand. The former variable also...

We study co-movements of inflation in a group of 15 countries before and during the classical Gold Standard by fitting a generalisation of the Ciccarelli-Mojon (2010) model on annual data spanning 1851-1913. We find that international inflation functions as an "attractor" for domestic inflation...

This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, we find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock....

Recently, the Bank of Japan outlined a "two perspectives" approach to the conduct of monetary policy that focuses on risks to price stability over different time horizons. Interpreting these as pertaining to different frequency bands, we use band spectrum regression to study the determination of...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast recessions...

This Paper estimates output gaps for Hong Kong, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan, employing the HP filter and unobservable-components (UC) techniques. The latter approach assumes that actual output is the sum of potential output, which follows a random walk with a time-varying drift,...

This paper uses weekly data on short-term eurorates for ten countries for the period 1979–96 to document that the ability of the expectations hypothesis (EH) to account for movements in the term structure is greater, and that short-term interest rates are more predictable, under fixed than...

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates in US data, using spectral regression techniques that allow us to consider different frequency bands. We find a positive relation between the term spread and the change in the long-term interest rate in a...