We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982 – 2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standards Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as...

This paper estimates a demand equation for German M3 over the period 1971:1-1989:4, and studies its ability to predict all-German M3 during 1990:l-1992:4 and (a measure of) western German M3 during 1990:l-1994:l. Although the out-of-sample prediction errors appear serially correlated, the...

This paper employs data on short and long interest rates for the G-10 countries, Australia, Austria and Spain to assess the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure, using the Campbell-Shiller (1987, 1991) methodology. Although the EH is rejected in several countries, in all countries...

This Paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates, using data spanning 1980-2001. The central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap (the difference between the real money stock and the...

Recently, the Bank of Japan outlined a “two perspectives” approach to the conduct of monetary policy that focuses on risks to price stability over different time horizons. Interpreting this as pertaining to different frequency bands, we use band spectrum regression to study the determination...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve provides information about the likelihood of future recessions in all countries....

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in , using monthly data starting in 1967: 1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising, output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...

During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992-93 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a twocountry version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the "warranted"...