This paper investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming minimum variance portfolios and minimum tracking error portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents of the S&P 100 index. We focus on the issue of determining the optimal sampling frequency,...

Merton's structural model for sovereigns is proven to be useful to analyze the default risk of a country. We are the first to investigate how fast CDS spreads react to changes in model inputs and outputs. CDS spread changes strongly correlate with exchange rate returns, which are an input to the...

Political risk relates to both the ability and the willingness of governments to repay debts. We find that bond prices only slowly adapt to changes in political risk. The expected bond returns for countries whose political risk ratings have improved are higher than those for countries whose...

Excess bond returns in developed markets are predictable using factors like bond momentum, equity momentum and term spread. We show the same factors can also predict emerging government bond returns of debt issued in local currency. An investment strategy based on the three factors delivers 1.2%...

In this paper we examine a momentum strategy based on residual stock returns. We find that residual momentum exhibits risk-adjusted profits that are about twice as large as those associated with total return momentum. Moreover, we find that the main arguments that have been put forward in the...

In this paper we examine a momentum strategy based on residual stock returns. We find that residual momentum exhibits risk-adjusted profits that are about twice as large as those associated with total return momentum. Moreover, we find that the main arguments that have been put forward in the...

We build on the work of Wright and Zhou (2009) who show that the average jump mean in bond prices can predict excess bond returns, capturing the countercyclical behaviour of risk premia. We show that these jumps often take place at 8:30 and 10:00 directly linking them to specific macroeconomic...

edging short gamma exposure requires trading in the direction of price movements,thereby creating price momentum. Using intraday returns on over 60 futures on equities,bonds, commodities, and currencies between 1974 and 2020, we document strong “marketintraday momentum” everywhere. The...

We examine the predictability of government bond returns using a deep sample spanning 70 years of international data across the major bond markets. Using an economic, trading-based testing framework we find strong economic and statistical evidence of bond return predictability with a Sharpe...