Euro redenomination risk is the risk that a euro asset will be redenominated into a devalued legacy currency. We propose a time-varying, country-specific market perception of intra-euro area redenomination risk measure, defined as the quanto CDS of a member country relative to the quanto CDS of...

We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market...

Using a representative sample of businesses in the euro area, we show that Eurosystempurchases of corporate bonds under the Corporate Sector Purchase programme (CSPP)increased the net issuance of debt securities, triggering a shift in bank loan supply infavour of firms that do not have access to...

This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by...

Assessing the impact of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by the European Central Bank (ECB) on euro area sovereign yields is challenging, because the monetary policy announcement in January 2015 was already implicitly communicated to the market in the second half of 2014. Therefore, to...

Credit spreads may be jointly driven by developments that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy. We show that this unobserved systematic component is demanded to hedge against adverse economic fluctuations. Using either yield-to-maturity spreads or asset swap spreads for 2345...

Corporate bond returns in major developed economies increase with lower ratings and higher residual maturity. The performance of various factor models featuring corporate, sovereign and equity markets as factors suggests that the corporate bond factor plays a dominant role in explaining the...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

We assess the effect and the timing of the corporate arm of the ECB quantitative easing (CSPP) on corporate bond issuance. Because of several contemporaneous measures, to isolate the programme effects we rely on one key eligibility feature: the euro denomination of newly issued bonds. We find...