This paper documents and interprets the variability in the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using the method of rolling vector autoregression and United States data from 1959:01 to 1994:12. While I find robust support for short-run price stickiness and long-run output neutrality,...

We propose and evaluate a technique for instrumental variables estimation of linear models with conditional heteroskedasticity. The technique uses approximating parametric models for the projection of right-hand side variables onto the instrument space, and for conditional heteroskedasticity and...

Using monthly data from G7 and eight Asian countries, support is found for the Fisher hypothesis, as well as a positive relation between long-horizon nominal stock returns and expected inflation but not between long-horizon nominal stock returns and contemporaneous inflation. These empirical...

We fit a factor model to two monthly panels of deflated prices of energy, metals and agricultural commodities. Prices consistently display a tendency to revert towards the factor, though the speed of reversion to the factor is slow. Using both in- and out-of-sample metrics, we compare the factor...

In 2005, the US Congress challenged the acquisition by CNOOC (a Chinese state-owned enterprise) of Unocal (a US firm). This challenge creates a political barrier for foreign companies to acquire US oil companies. This paper examines the stock price reaction of US oil companies to this political...