This paper examines the predictive properties of risk indicators for the foreign exchange markets. In particular it considers the predictive properties of historical volatilities and implied volatilities for movements in various bilateral exchange rates and compares them with the analogous...

This paper proposes a forward-looking indicator of risk in the foreign exchange markets calculated from the implied volatilities of currency options according to the Garman-Kohlhagen model. We discuss the properties of such indicator and stress that it is related to a notion of risk that does...

This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan`s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other...

This paper contains an empirical analysis of currency substitution in Turkey: a simple relationship between the share of foreign currency holdings in M2X on one side and movements in the exchange rate or inflation on the other is derived from a two-stage portfolio choice model. This relationship...

This paper surveys the main theoretical approaches for analyzing movements in the current account of the balance of payments, from the Mundell-Fleming paradigm to modern intertemporal approaches. It discusses the main implications of these analyses for policymaking, highlighting that modern...

This paper reviews the policy response to the 2007–09 financial crisis from the perspective of a senior Treasury official at the time. Government agencies faced severe constraints in addressing the crisis: lack of legal authority for potentially helpful financial stabilization measures, a...