This paper reassesses the dynamic links between trade and growth in India during the post-independence period. The main result is a short-run bi-directional relationship between exports and output growth. This finding is supported both by standard Granger causality tests, and by an alternative...

The paper tests purchasing-power-parity as a long-run equilibrium condition, focusing on bilateral exchange rates between the dollar, the mark, and the yen. The sample consists of quarterly data ranging from 1955 to 1990. Differently from most previous work’s, a preliminary data investigation...

This paper explores the links between exchange rate credibility and macroeconomic fundamentals with reference to the Italian experience during the first half of the 90s. The analysis relies on a nonlinear framework emphasizing shifts between credible and not credible states, and assuming a...

This paper extends the literature on real exchange rate targeting inside a stochastic optimization framework where the real exchange rate displays long run mean reversion while temporarily reflecting a ?liquidity effect?. In a time-varying volatility framework, we detect two thresholds,...

In this paper we extend Svenssons (CEPR Discussion Paper 940, April 1994) 'simplest test' of inflation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework and obtain various estimates of the European Central Bank's monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that...

This paper reassesses the sustainability of fiscal policy in India from 1950 to 2010. Overall, the evidence broadly supports the hypothesis that the fiscal policy is "weakly" sustainable and documents a higher speed of adjustment to the intertemporal budget constraint than earlier papers do....