Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...

Artículo de revista

This paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on real GDP, investment, consumption and employment varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis. To this end, a regime-switching process is embedded in standard macroeconomic equations in order to take into...

This introduction presents a selection of articles dealing with the issue of measuring the fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in the advanced economies. These articles were presented at a conference organized jointly by the Banque de France and BETA in Strasbourg on 13--14 September. The...

[spa] Veinte años de previsiones macroeconómicas : un anlisis a partir de datos Franceses, . por Didier Borowski, Carine Bouthevillain, Catherine Doz, Pierre Malgrange y Pierre Morin.. . En el presente artículo se examina el grado de precisión que han alcanzado las previsiones...

ABSTRACT This paper discusses sources of self‐fulfilling equilibria in the Eurozone when some governments are highly susceptible to movements of distrust by investors who fear some payment difficulty. Self‐fulfilling prophecies occur when countries become insolvent only because investors...

ABSTRACT This special issue provides several views about the sources of the current crisis and policy solutions to cope with it. It brings together papers from academic institutions, international organizations and central banks. The first three papers argue that the crisis was triggered by the...

La situation conjoncturelle de l’économie française s’est améliorée au cours du dernier trimestre et la demande intérieure s’est nettement redressée pour constituer le moteur des évolutions prévisibles en 1998. La croissance devrait se poursuivre, sans à-coup important, au cours...