Typically, when using econometric techniques to forecast economic variables, estimation is carried out on a forecasting model that is built upon some assumed economic structure, based upon a priori knowledge and economic principles. However, such techniques cannot avoid running into the...

Typically, when conducting econometric forecasting, estimation is carried out on a forecasting model that is built upon some assumed economic structure. However, such techniques cannot avoid running into the possibility of misspecification, which will occur should there be some error in the...

This paper investigates the phenomenon in which Japan's household saving rate showed a sharp decline even during the long stagnation period called "the lost decade." Our empirical results show that the sharp decline in the saving rate in the 1990's can be explained by the significant impact of...

The year-on-year rate of decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--excluding fresh food, since it fluctuates significantly--narrowed to -0.4 percent in April 2003. Meanwhile, the year-on-year change of the GDP deflator for the first quarter of 2003 dropped to its lowest record of -3.5 percent....