This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957–98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long–lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also...

This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials,...

Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist''s index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per...

This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to a persistent net importer of capital, Australia, during its post-capital-controls period 1984-98. The results suggest that international capital flows were larger than optimal during the 1980s, but in the 1990s such flows have...

This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade shocks, private saving, and the current account position. The relationship between these variables is theoretically ambiguous: an adverse transitory terms of trade shock can either induce a deterioration or an improvement in the current...

This paper extends the staple theory literature by examining the influence of wool, Australia's dominant primary-product export, on the development of the Australian economy and external position over the period 1862-1995. The results support the view that while shocks to the wool industry had...

This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to Australia, a persistent net importer of capital, during its post-capital controls period 1984-99. The evolution of Australia's current account balance is compared against a benchmark derived from an optimising model of...