The existence of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials between countries offers two of the main rationales for … an inflation buffer in a monetary union where monetary policy is oriented towards an area-wide inflation objective … strong argument for a positive inflation buffer to “grease the wheels” of the euro area economy – also in order to avoid the …

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). The recursive forecast errors for several forecast horizons are evaluated for all models …In this study, we build two forecasting models to predict inflation Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the … prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate the Dutch inflation projections for the eurosystem's Narrow …

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to … model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which … pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to …