We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios – dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, and book-to-market ratio – by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess...

The dynamic effect of idiosyncratic risk on market returns has been debated recently. Previous studies examine the effect based on a regression of excess returns on one-lagged volatility. We claim this approach provides only a partial, limited picture of the dynamic effect of idiosyncratic risk...