We estimate the effect of asylum seekers on house prices in England and Wales from 2004 to 2015, and find, using panel data and time series methods, that the government's dispersal policies have had small but statistically significant negative effects on housing prices, especially for...

We propose an alternative measure of system-wide connectedness to the popular generalized spillover index, based on generalized forecast error variance decompositions, of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2104). Our measure relies on joint conditional forecasts to decompose variance, as opposed to the...

This paper examines the role of aggregate productivity and money supply shocks in determining the relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative commodity prices. I estimate a restricted VAR that includes aggregate variables and individual commodity prices, and compute the...

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to incorporating specification and identification uncertainty into a VAR analysis of the dynamic effects of money supply shocks on the macroeconomy. The approach follows Poirier (1991) in averaging over discrete model specifications in forming posterior...

In this paper, we analyze the effects of money on the market for durable goods. Using quarterly US data, we estimate the dynamic responses of the price and quantity of durable goods and housing to money supply shocks, assuming only that money is neutral in the long-run. We then match these...

This paper examines the role of aggregate productivity and money supply shocks in determining the relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative commodity prices. I estimate a restricted VAR that includes aggregate variables and individual commodity prices, and compute the...

We estimate how spending in Texas responded to a 1997 constitutional amendment that relaxed severe restrictions on home equity lending. We use this event as a natural experiment to estimate the importance of credit constraints. If households are credit-constrained, such an increase in credit...

Modern paper currency contributes little to productive investment. This shortcoming is not inherent to paper money. It stems from the fact that such money is monopolistically supplied by public monetary authorities that are poor intermediaries. Commercial banknotes, in contrast, are just as...