Recent studies suggest that US and other developed economies have become considerably stabilized in terms of volatility since the mid-1980s (Stock and Watson, 2002). This study models the structural break in volatility using a dynamic factor model with two state variables: one capturing cyclical...

Since the transportation sector plays an important role in business cycle propagation, we develop indicators for this sector to identify its current state, and predict its future. We define the reference cycle, including both business and growth cycles, for this sector over the period from 1979...

This paper studies spillover effects of innovation at the firm level and the comparability of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators with maximum likelihood estimators of the earlier studies. Two sources of spillovers are identified, i.e. intra-industry R&D expenditure and intra-industry...