Despite U.S. fiscal problems, the Fed appears to still retain excellent inflation credibility with financial markets… Although confidence in the Fed might explain the quiescence of inflation expectations, the structure of U.S. government debt may be more important… [I]nflating away the U.S....

We analyze comovements in four measures of budget surpluses for 18 OECD countries for 1980-2008 with a dynamic latent factor model. The world factor in national budget surpluses declines substantially in the 1980s, rises throughout much of the 1990s to a peak in 2000, before declining again in...

This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. Technicians view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on...

U.S. output growth declined less than in most other industrialized countries while U.S. unemployment rose higher and faster than it did in most other major industrialized countries.

"This paper finds that standard asset pricing models fail to explain the significantly negative delta hedging errors that occur as a result of the purchase of options on foreign exchange futures. Foreign exchange volatility does influence stock returns, however. The volatility of the JPY/USD...

Researchers have long studied the reaction of foreign exchange returns to macroeconomic announcements in order to infer changes in policy reaction functions and foreign exchange micro­structure, including the speed of market reaction to news and how order flow helps impound public and private...

Large-scale asset purchases may have limited power to raise TIPS-implied inflation expectations—something that might appeal to policymakers fighting deflation.

The severe contractions and deflationary episodes that followed 19th century U.S. banking crises have shaped the U.S. perception of deflation.

This paper attempts to realistically model the underlying exchange rate data generating process. We ask what types of diffusion or jump features are most appropriate. The most plausible model for 1-minute data features Brownian motion and Poisson jumps but not infinite activity jumps. Modeling...