Risk and uncertainty are well"recognized features of modern, dynamically changing societies. They penetrate social development mechanisms and become an integral part of social reality. Risks are felt particularly acutely by the youth as an objective part of life. Fundamental theoretical research...

Rapid environmental changes can affect agriculture by introducing additional sources of uncertainty. Conversely, policy interventions to help farmers cope with risks may have strong impacts on the environment. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of public risk management programmes,...

It is well known that extreme share returns on stock markets can have important implications for financial risk management. In this paper, we are concerned with the distribution of the extreme daily returns of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index. Three well-known distributions in...

In this paper, we consider a risk model which allows the insurer to partially reflect the recent claim experience in the determination of the next period’s premium rate. In a ruin context, similar mechanisms to the one proposed in this paper have been studied by, e.g., Tsai and Parker (2004),...

Models commonly employed to fit current claims data and predict future claims are often parametric and relatively inflexible. An incorrect model assumption can cause model misspecification which leads to reduced profits at best and dangerous, unanticipated risk exposure at worst. Even mixture...

When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models...

In today׳s complex global environment, it is very important for a firm to possess backup supply resource when facing unpredictable disruptions from its primary supply resource. To ensure the actual arrival of backup supply in cases of primary supply disruptions, a purchasing firm needs to work...

We present a method of hedging Conditional Value at Risk of a position in stock using put options. The result leads to a linear programming problem that can be solved to optimise risk hedging.

We analyze the impact of managerial compensation structure in publicly-traded banks on their risk taking behavior, specifically the changes in risk taking through the changing regulatory environment for these banks. We perform a simulation analysis to study the impact of the interaction between...

Model risk has a huge impact on any risk measurement procedure and its quantification is therefore a crucial step. In this paper, we introduce three quantitative measures of model risk when choosing a particular reference model within a given class: the absolute measure of model risk, the...