This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market's expected excess return and growth of economic activity are...

Under the overwhelming evidence of numerous empirical studies that found a negative correlation between the degree of independence and the level of inflation, many governments granted their national central banks independent status around 1990. With low inflation rates in the subsequent period -...