the Phillips curve over time. We consider different specifications and different measures for inflation. Furthermore, we … include stochastic volatility for the observation errors. Our estimation results are based on practical Bayesian state space ….S. headline inflation has remained empirically relevant over the years. …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

. This paper continues this strand of research by examining the role survey expectations play in the inflation process and … reports three principal findings. One, short-run inflation expectations appear to play a significant role in explaining U ….S. inflation over the past 20-25 years. Two, long-run expectations generally do not appear to have a direct influence on U …