This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample...

This paper surveys the most important developments in multivariate ARCH-type modelling. It reviews the model specifications, the inference methods, and the main areas of application of these models in financial econometrics

Change-point models are useful for modeling time series subject to structural breaks. For interpretation and forecasting, it is essential to estimate correctly the number of change points in this class of models. In Bayesian inference, the number of change points is typically chosen by the...

We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional correlation (mDCC) model to separate long-run from short-run components. We allow for smooth changes in the unconditional...

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for...

The Multiplicative MIDAS Realized DCC (MMReDCC) model simultaneously accounts for short and long term dynamics in the conditional (co)volatilities of asset returns, in line with the empirical evidence suggesting that their level is changing over time as a function of economic conditions. Herein...