Usually, offcial and survey-based statistics guide policy makers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused incalculable and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available...

This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A...

The ideas of Markowitz indisputably constitute a milestone in portfolio theory, even though the resulting mean-variance portfolios typically exhibit an unsatisfying out-of-sample performance, especially when the number of securities is large and that of observations is not. The bad performance...

Agent based models take into account limited rational behaviour of individuals acting on financial markets. Explicit simulation of this behaviour and the resulting interaction of individuals provide a description of aggregate financial market time series. Although the outcomes of such...

Methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions which are commonly used in vector autoregressive analysis are reviewed. While considering separate intervals for each horizon individually still seems to be the most common approach, a substantial number of methods...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the range of members' forecasts for key macroeconomic variables, but not the distribution of forecasts within this range. To evaluate these projections, previous papers compare the midpoint of the ranges with the...