This paper describes a preliminary version of the small inflation model of Mongolia (SIMOM). The intended primary use of the model is analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and the inflation process in Mongolia, estimation of dynamic responses of selected variables to different shocks...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF), we estimate a general model integrating two...

Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not...

This paper presents survey-based measures of the inflation expectations of consumers, companies, and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing the features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from a macroeconomic perspective.

The paper analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank’s ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation...

The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union on the 1st January 1999 and the introduction of the common currency euro enlivened the discussion on the subject of the theory of optimum currency area and their practical applications. The opinions appeared that the countries of the euro zone do...

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary...

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP...

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order...