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volatility when forecasting subsequently realized return volatility, and it appears to be an unbiased forecast. Furthermore … realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting … for this allows improved forecasting of future realized volatility. We investigate the potential forecasting role of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290416
FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015179749
theory assumes that return shocks can be caused by changes in conditional volatility through a time-varying risk premium. On … leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002670536
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008990694
volatility. The vector MEM relaxes the two restrictions often imposed by previous empirical work in market microstructure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009738886
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024262
To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564
This study examines the spillover and connectedness network among the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+6 stock market returns during times of uncertainty in the world economy, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015071478
The volatility of equity and foreign exchange market is an important input to portfolio selection and to asset pricing … models. Many investment decisions and valuation of derivatives frequently rely on predictions of volatility. In this paper we … review the existing empirical literature in forecasting volatility of financial time series. Particularly, we decompose the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122403