In many elections, individuals are given two alternatives and are asked to indicate which of the two they prefer. These votes are then tabulated using one person/one vote and the alternative with the most votes becomes the public choice. Can we improve upon this system? If we change the election...

A previously published paper evaluated election schemes under a wide variety of election circumstances. This paper improves upon the previous work by refining the measures used to rate the election schemes and increasing the statistical significance of those ratings. With these modifications, we...

The "hard-easy effect" is a well-known cognitive bias on self-confidence calibration that refers to a tendency to overestimate the probability of success in hard-perceived tasks, and to underestimate it in easy-perceived tasks. This paper provides a target-based foundation for this effect, and...

Bayesian techniques specify how to update beliefs about a variable given information on that variable or related variables. In many cases, statistical analyses also provide information about the relationship between variables, but the Borel Paradox prohibits many natural ways of updating beliefs...

A common precept of decision analysis under uncertainty is the choice of an action which maximizes the expected value of a utility function. Savage's (1954) axioms for subjective expected utility provide a normative foundation for this principle of choice. This paper shows that the same set of...

This paper focusses on choice models in which individuals (a) determine which of the many available products are worthy of detailed consideration. We refer to the resulting smaller set of products as the individual's choice set; (b) choose among products in the choice set using a fairly simple...